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Toluca weather history

Live conditions, the day's high and low compared with the long-term average, monthly climate averages, all-time records and the city's warming trend since 1940 — all on one page for Toluca, Mexico.

Today

17°/11°

Average for this date 21° /

Much cooler3.5°C

How it’s changed

+2.6°Caverage temperature, 2016–2025 vs 1940–1949
3frost days a year now (2016–2025) · 9 in the 1940s
11days above 25°C a year now · 0 in the 1940s

Right now

What it's doing today vs the historical average for this date.
Showers

Right now

15.7°

16°feels like
82%humidity
13°dew point
3 km/hfrom SE
sunrise05:59sunset19:14day length13h 15m
FriOvercast17°11°
TodayOvercast19°11°
SunOvercast20°12°
MonOvercast18°13°
TueOvercast19°13°
WedOvercast23°12°
ThuPartly cloudy24°14°

On this date — June 6

Today (forecast)
17° / 11°
Average for June 6
21° /

Cooler than usual · 3.5°C below the average high

  • Record high: 25.8° · 2013
  • Record low: 3.9° · 1946
  • One year ago: 22.6°

Every June 6 in history — coldest to hottest

Daily highsDaily lows

Dots show daily highs (top) and lows (bottom) for each June 6 on record (n = 86). Outlined dots are today's forecast.

Next 24 hours

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Last 30 days

18 of the last 23 days were warmer than the historical average for that date. Average difference: +0.9°C.

Each bar is one day, from morning low to afternoon high. Warm-colored bars are days whose mean ran above average; cool bars ran below. The dot inside the bar is the daily mean. The shaded band is the typical 10–90% range expected for that date. Average = the day's mean temperature averaged across every year of record (1940–2026) for that calendar date.

This date over the years

One dot per year — the mean temperature on this calendar date. Dots are warmer or cooler than the long-term average (dashed line); the shaded band is the typical 10–90% range, and the highlighted dot is today's forecast. Based on ERA5 reanalysis — modelled estimates, not station readings.

Climate

What a typical year looks like — built from the full record.

Climate overview

The warmest month of the year in Toluca is May, with a daily mean around 13.9°C and typical afternoon highs of 21.0°C. The coolest is January, when daily means drop to roughly 8.9°C and overnight lows hover around 3.0°C. Between the two extremes the climate moves through a fairly predictable seasonal cycle that you can see in the monthly chart below.

Total annual precipitation in Toluca averages about 1269 mm. The wettest month is usually July with around 241 mm of rain, while December is the driest at roughly 21 mm. The split between wet and dry seasons gives a quick sense of when umbrellas and waterproof shoes are most useful.

Over the full record (since 1940), the annual mean temperature in Toluca has shifted by +2.6°C between the first decade and the last. The hottest single day in the record reached 28.6°C in 1983; the coldest, -6.5°C in 1976.

Monthly temperature range

May is the warmest month, January the coolest — a yearly swing of 5°C.

Each bar is the average daily low → average daily high for that month. Color shifts cool→warm by month temperature. The dot is the monthly mean. Average = each month's value averaged across every year of record (1940–2026).

Monthly rainfall

Wettest month: July (~241 mm). Whole year averages ~1269 mm of rain.

Average total millimetres of rainfall in each calendar month, across the full record.

Monthly wind

Average daily peak wind at 10 m, by month.

Monthly solar energy

Average daily incoming solar energy in megajoules per square metre — a measured proxy for how sunny the month is.

Monthly reference table

Numerical reference: average highs/lows, mean rainfall, and absolute records for each month of the year. Average = each month's value averaged across every year of record (1940–2026).

MonthAvg highAvg lowRainRecord highRecord low
January16.2°3.0°30 mm22.8° (2017)-4.8° (1956)
February17.7°3.9°27 mm24.8° (2021)-6.5° (1976)
March19.6°5.5°31 mm26.1° (2020)-3.7° (1987)
April20.9°6.9°57 mm27.8° (2000)-0.6° (1957)
May21.0°7.8°120 mm28.6° (1983)1.9° (1962)
June19.5°8.7°196 mm28.0° (1993)2.6° (1956)
July18.2°8.2°241 mm23.3° (2014)2.1° (1946)
August18.3°8.1°230 mm23.3° (2016)1.6° (1961)
September18.1°8.3°184 mm23.4° (2017)-1.2° (1979)
October18.1°6.6°95 mm24.1° (2009)-3.8° (1952)
November17.4°4.6°37 mm23.9° (2015)-4.6° (2002)
December16.4°3.4°21 mm22.6° (2021)-6.4° (2006)

How it has changed

Year-by-year signals from 1940 to today.

Climate stripes

Annual mean shifted from 1940–1949 to 2016–2025 by +2.6°C.

Each vertical stripe is one year. Color encodes how much that year's annual mean differed from the long-term average. Average = each year's annual mean compared to the average of all years (1940–2026). cooler ← → warmer

Annual mean temperature

Long-term trend: +0.35°C per decade.

One point per year — the temperature averaged across the whole year. The dashed line is the least-squares long-term trend. Based on ERA5 reanalysis — modelled estimates, not station readings.

Seasonal warming

Mar–May is warming fastest: +0.37°C per decade.

Each faint line is one three-month period's average per year; the bold dashed line is its long-term trend. Different parts of the year often warm at different rates. Based on ERA5 reanalysis — modelled estimates, not station readings.

Hot days vs frost days

Days ≥ 25°C per year: 0.0 early in the record → 10.8 recently. Frost days: 9 → 3.

Thin lines are raw yearly counts; thick lines are the smoothed trend that removes year-to-year noise. The hot-day threshold is auto-picked per city so the line actually moves. Average = a centered 5-year rolling average to smooth weather noise.

Yearly hot & cold extremes

All-time high in 1983, all-time low in 1976: 28.6°C / -6.5°C.

One point per year — the single hottest and coldest day recorded that year.

Annual rainfall

~1269 mm/year on average. Last decade ran +3% vs that average.

One bar per year of total rainfall. Dashed line is the long-term average. Average = the average annual rainfall across every year of record (1940–2026).

Day-by-day grid

Each tiny square is one calendar day across the full record — ~30,000 days per city. Use the mode switch above the chart: Anomaly colors each day by how far it ran from the historical average for that date (red = warmer, blue = cooler), Daily mean temp shows the absolute mean temperature for the day (useful to see seasons and heatwaves), and Precipitation shows daily rainfall (useful to spot wet/dry seasons and droughts). Average = the long-term average for that calendar date (1940–2026).

Toluca — Frequently asked questions

Which is the warmest month in Toluca?
On long-term average, the warmest month in Toluca is May (mean about 13.9°C) and the coolest is January (about 8.9°C).
How does today's temperature in Toluca compare to the historical average?
On 2026-06-06, Toluca is forecast to reach a high of 17.2°C and a low of 11.4°C. The long-term average for this date (the full record since 1940) is a high of 20.7°C and a low of 8.8°C — today's high is 3.5°C cooler than that average.
How much has Toluca warmed since 1940?
Comparing the first decade of the record (1940–1949) with the most recent (2016–2025), the annual mean temperature in Toluca is about 2.6°C warmer.
How much does it rain in Toluca?
Toluca receives about 1269 mm of precipitation per year on long-term average, with July typically the wettest month.