Nashville weather by month — averages, rainfall & climate trends
Tennessee's Music City sits inland in the Upper South, working through four full seasons — hot, humid summers, mild winters, and stormy springs that put it squarely in the path of Southern thunderstorm season. Average temperatures and rainfall by month, a climate graph, today's conditions versus the long-term average, and how the climate has shifted since 1940 — all on one page for Nashville, United States.
Today vs average
+1.2°Cabout average
How it’s changed
Right now
What it's doing today vs the historical average for this date.
Right now
32.1°
33°22°
36°25°30°22°
28°20°24°19°
30°19°34°23°On this date — July 20
About average
- Record high: 37.7° · 1954
- Record low: 14.9° · 1947
- One year ago: 32.8°
Every July 20 in history — coldest to hottest
Dots show daily highs (top) and lows (bottom) for each July 20 on record (n = 87). Outlined dots are today's forecast.
Area we sample
Each city's history comes from one ERA5 grid cell — about 28 km across, shown by the dashed box. Near mountains or coasts, conditions can vary across the cell.
Location & data
Historical weather for Nashville is sampled from the ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis at 36.17°N, 86.78°W, with daily records since 1940.
- Coordinates
- 36.17°N, 86.78°W
- Time zone
- America/Chicago
- Period
- 1940–2026
- Data source
- ERA5 (ECMWF)
Last 30 days
18 of the last 31 days were warmer than the historical average for that date. Average difference: +0.4°C.
Each bar is one day, from morning low to afternoon high. Warm-colored bars are days whose mean ran above average; cool bars ran below. The dot inside the bar is the daily mean. The shaded band is the typical 10–90% range expected for that date. Average = the day's mean temperature averaged across every year of record (1940–2026) for that calendar date.
This date over the years
One dot per year — the mean temperature on this calendar date. Dots are warmer or cooler than the long-term average (dashed line); the shaded band is the typical 10–90% range, and the highlighted dot is today's forecast. Based on ERA5 reanalysis — modelled estimates, not station readings.
Weather by month
Average temperatures and rainfall for each month — what a typical year looks like, from the full record.Climate overview
Nashville has a humid subtropical climate (Köppen Cfa), typical of the Upper South, with hot, humid summers and generally cool winters. Set inland on the Cumberland River in Middle Tennessee, it experiences four distinct seasons, and its spring and autumn can be lively and at times violent — the times of year when severe thunderstorms are most likely.
Those storms are the source of the city's main hazards: tornadoes, large hail, damaging winds and flash flooding. Tornadoes have struck the area directly in recent years, including deadly ones in March 2020 and December 2023, while the catastrophic flood of early May 2010 inundated much of Nashville and caused billions of dollars in damage. Its summers, meanwhile, have measurably warmed since 1970.
The year peaks in July, at 26.3°C over the day and around 31.5°C by mid-afternoon. In a typical recent year, around 85 days reach 30°C or more. At the other extreme, January averages 3.1°C, with typical overnight lows of -0.5°C. Frost shows up on around 45 mornings a year.
In total, Nashville averages about 1276 mm of precipitation a year; March is usually the wettest month (133 mm) and October the driest (78 mm).
Comparing the record's first decade with its most recent one, Nashville now averages 1.7°C warmer than it did in the 1940s. The last decade has also run wetter, about 17% above the long-term precipitation average.
Climate graph (climograph)
July is the warmest month, January the coolest — a yearly swing of 23°C. Wettest month: March (~133 mm). Whole year averages ~1276 mm of rain.
Bars = average monthly rainfall (right axis). Lines = average daily high and low (left axis). Average = each month's value averaged across every year of record (1940–2026).
Monthly wind
Average daily peak wind at 10 m, by month.
Monthly solar energy
Average daily incoming solar energy in megajoules per square metre — a measured proxy for how sunny the month is.
Nashville month by month — what to expect
Typical conditions for each month, averaged across the full record (since 1940). Daylight is the time from sunrise to sunset. Record high/low are the most extreme values in the ERA5 dataset (modelled since 1940), so they can differ from official weather-station readings.
| Month | Avg high | Avg low | Rain | Daylight | Record high | Record low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 8.1° | -0.5° | 112 mm | 9.8 h | 24.4° (1950) | -25.4° (1963) |
| February | 10.7° | 1.0° | 118 mm | 10.7 h | 27.4° (2023) | -22.4° (1951) |
| March | 15.7° | 5.2° | 133 mm | 11.7 h | 30.0° (2007) | -16.0° (1960) |
| April | 21.4° | 10.2° | 119 mm | 12.9 h | 33.2° (1989) | -3.1° (1989) |
| May | 25.7° | 15.3° | 117 mm | 13.9 h | 34.8° (2012) | 2.3° (1940) |
| June | 30.0° | 20.0° | 93 mm | 14.4 h | 41.8° (2012) | 7.8° (1972) |
| July | 31.5° | 21.9° | 106 mm | 14.2 h | 41.2° (1952) | 12.6° (1947) |
| August | 31.1° | 21.0° | 87 mm | 13.4 h | 40.7° (2007) | 10.1° (1986) |
| September | 27.9° | 17.3° | 87 mm | 12.2 h | 39.7° (1954) | 4.1° (1983) |
| October | 22.2° | 10.9° | 78 mm | 11.1 h | 36.7° (2019) | -1.9° (1981) |
| November | 15.3° | 5.5° | 105 mm | 10.0 h | 30.9° (2016) | -17.4° (1950) |
| December | 10.0° | 1.6° | 122 mm | 9.6 h | 23.9° (1998) | -21.9° (1989) |
How it has changed
Year-by-year signals from 1940 to today.Climate stripes
Annual mean shifted from 1940–1949 to 2016–2025 by +1.7°C.
Each vertical stripe is one year. Color encodes how much that year's annual mean differed from the long-term average. Average = each year's annual mean compared to the average of all years (1940–2026). cooler ← → warmer
Annual mean temperature
Long-term trend: +0.20°C per decade.
One point per year — the temperature averaged across the whole year. The dashed line is the least-squares long-term trend. Based on ERA5 reanalysis — modelled estimates, not station readings.
Seasonal warming
Mar–May is warming fastest: +0.27°C per decade.
Each faint line is one three-month period's average per year; the bold dashed line is its long-term trend. Different parts of the year often warm at different rates. Based on ERA5 reanalysis — modelled estimates, not station readings.
Hot days vs frost days
Days ≥ 30°C per year: 66.6 early in the record → 87.0 recently. Frost days: 60 → 43.
Thin lines are raw yearly counts; thick lines are the smoothed trend that removes year-to-year noise. The hot-day threshold is auto-picked per city so the line actually moves. Average = a centered 5-year rolling average to smooth weather noise.
Yearly hot & cold extremes
All-time high in 2012, all-time low in 1963: 41.8°C / -25.4°C.
One point per year — the single hottest and coldest day recorded that year.
Annual rainfall
~1276 mm/year on average. Last decade ran +17% vs that average. Long-term trend: +28 mm per decade.
One bar per year of total rainfall. Dashed line is the long-term average. Average = the average annual rainfall across every year of record (1940–2026).
Day-by-day grid
Each tiny square is one calendar day across the full record — ~30,000 days per city. Use the mode switch above the chart: Anomaly colors each day by how far it ran from the historical average for that date (red = warmer, blue = cooler), Daily mean temp shows the absolute mean temperature for the day (useful to see seasons and heatwaves), and Precipitation shows daily rainfall (useful to spot wet/dry seasons and droughts). Average = the long-term average for that calendar date (1940–2026).