🇹🇲Turkmenistan

Turkmenistan (approximately 488,100 km²) stretches across Central Asia between 35°–43°N, bordered by the Caspian Sea (1,768 km coastline) to the west, Iran (992 km) and Afghanistan (744 km) to the south, Uzbekistan (1,621 km) to the north and east, and Kazakhstan (379 km) to the northwest, encompassing one of the world's most extreme continental desert climates.

The vast Karakum (Garagum) Desert dominates nearly 80% of the territory, covering over 350,000 km² with shifting sand dunes that can reach twenty meters in height, creating a hyperarid landscape punctuated only by the southern Kopet Dag mountain range (rising to 3,139 m at Mount Aýrybaba) and the marshy Sarygamysh Lake depression (100 m below sea level).

The climate is predominantly Köppen BWk (cold desert) transitioning to BWh (hot desert) in the south, with mean annual temperatures ranging from 12.8°C in the north (Daşoguz) to 17.5°C in the south-central region (Ashgabat). Annual precipitation is exceptionally sparse, averaging merely 80 mm in the northwest to 300 mm in the Kopet Dag foothills, concentrated in brief January–May storms, leaving the country perpetually water-stressed. The Caspian Sea moderates temperatures along the western coast, though its own water levels have declined significantly since the 1990s, exposing new coastline and intensifying regional aridity.

Ashgabat (southern piedmont, elevation 219 m) averages 4°C in January and 32°C in July with only 225 mm annual precipitation, experiencing summer maxima routinely exceeding 45°C and winter nights occasionally dropping below -5°C. Türkmenbaşy (Caspian coast) records 2°C in January and 28°C in July with 135 mm annual rainfall, though the severe July 2023 heatwave pushed temperatures to 50°C, approaching or potentially matching the national record of 50.1°C set at Repetek in 1983, marking one of the most extreme heat events in modern Turkmen history.

Türkmenabat (eastern Amu Darya valley) registers -1°C in January and 32°C in July with 118 mm, enduring the nation's coldest winters while summer temperatures regularly exceed 48°C. Mary (southern oasis, 222 m elevation) records 1°C in January and 32°C in July with 112 mm, sustained by ancient irrigation systems drawing from the dwindling Murgab River.

Daşoguz (northern border) drops to -4°C in January and reaches 29°C in July with 109 mm, experiencing the most severe continental temperature swings. The severe ongoing Aral Sea collapse (shrunk to 10% of its 1960 size) damages northern Turkmenistan, where the Turkmen portion of the southern basin has virtually desiccated along with its Uzbek counterpart; toxic dust storms from the exposed, pesticide-contaminated seabed now blast the region with salt, chemicals, and particulates, traveling hundreds of kilometers and causing respiratory illnesses, infant mortality spikes, and agricultural damage.

The Amu Darya River, historically feeding the Aral Sea, now contributes no water to the sea, with virtually its entire flow diverted upstream through the massively inefficient Karakum Canal (losing nearly 50% of water to seepage) to irrigate Turkmenistan's cotton monoculture.

Recurring summer dust devils and massive dust storms from the Karakum Desert reduce visibility to near-zero during spring and summer months, while the Caspian Sea has declined approximately one meter since 1995, threatening coastal infrastructure, fisheries, and oil extraction facilities. Climate projections indicate further intensification of extreme heat and aridity, with summer temperatures exceeding 50°C becoming more frequent and the Karakum Desert expanding at rates second only to the Sahara-Sahel desertification globally.

Our archive covers 4 Turkmen cities with daily ERA5 reanalysis data going back to 1940. The warmest July averages occur in Mary, around 37.6°C, while Daşoguz records the coldest January nights near −6.8°C. Comparing the last decade against the 1940–1970 baseline, mean temperatures across these cities have risen by about 1.3°C.