🇸🇴Somalia

Somalia (approximately 637,660 km²) occupies the Horn of Africa between 2°S–12°N and 41°–52°E, bordered by 3,025 km of Indian Ocean and Gulf of Aden coastline to the east, Djibouti and Ethiopia to the west, and Kenya to the southwest, encompassing one of Africa's most climate-vulnerable regions.

The country spans diverse topography: the northern Guban coastal plain averaging 50 km width with scorching year-round temperatures; the Cal Madow mountain range in the northeast reaching 2,416 m at Shimbiris with slightly cooler microclimates; the central Mudug plateau descending southward from 900 m; and the fertile inter-riverine regions between the Jubba and Shabelle rivers supporting Somalia's primary agricultural zone.

The climate is predominantly Köppen BSh (hot semi-arid) in the north transitioning to BWh (hot desert) in the northeast and tropical savanna (Aw) in the south, with mean annual temperatures ranging from 25°C in highland areas to 30°C along coastal zones.

Somalia experiences a bimodal rainfall pattern: the gu (April–June) main rainy season delivering 60% of annual precipitation and the deyr (October–December) secondary season providing 30–40%, with the jilal (January–March) and hagaa (July–September) dry seasons between them. Annual precipitation varies dramatically from under 50 mm in the northeast to 500–600 mm in the south, though extreme interannual variability driven by the Indian Ocean Dipole and ENSO makes these averages misleading.

Mogadishu (coastal Banaadir region, elevation 9 m) averages 27°C in July and 28°C in April with approximately 429 mm annual precipitation concentrated in the gu and deyr seasons, but faces severe sea-level rise projections threatening critical infrastructure with storm surge flooding intensifying during positive Indian Ocean Dipole phases.

Hargeisa (northern highlands, 1,334 m elevation) experiences relatively cooler 21°C in January and 24°C in June with 384 mm rainfall. Bosaso (Gulf of Aden coast) registers extreme 30°C in June and 25°C in January with merely 51 mm, exemplifying the harsh northeastern desert climate. Kismayo (southern coast) records 26°C in July and 28°C in March with 562 mm supporting relatively more vegetation.

The severe 2010–2011 Horn of Africa drought-famine, exacerbated by conflict and delayed humanitarian response, killed an estimated 260,000 Somalis (half of them children under five) when consecutive gu and deyr rains failed across 2010–2011, marking the worst humanitarian disaster in Somalia since the 1991–1992 famine. The 2016–2017 drought again damaged pastoralist and agropastoralist communities, displacing over 1 million people.

The exceptional 2020–2023 megadrought saw five consecutive rainy seasons fail for the first time in recorded history, pushing 8.3 million Somalis (half the population) into acute food insecurity, killing over 43,000 people (half children), and displacing 1.2 million by mid-2023 according to UN OCHA assessments.

Then, in a severe climate whiplash, the November 2023 deyr-season rains turned severely heavy due to a strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole and El Niño convergence, dropping over 400% of normal precipitation in some regions, triggering the worst floods in decades that displaced over 700,000 people, destroyed 120,000 hectares of cropland, killed livestock, contaminated water sources, and caused widespread cholera outbreaks. Cyclone Sagar in May 2018 killed 53 people and displaced 190,000 in Somaliland and Puntland, marking one of the strongest storms to make landfall in northern Somalia.

Our archive covers 1 Somali cities with daily ERA5 reanalysis data going back to 1940. The warmest July averages occur in Mogadishu, around 26.6°C, while Mogadishu records the coldest January nights near 24.2°C. Comparing the last decade against the 1940–1970 baseline, mean temperatures across these cities have risen by about 0.8°C.