🇸🇴Somalia

Somalia (approximately 637,660 km²) occupies the Horn of Africa between 2°S–12°N and 41°–52°E, bordered by more than 3,000 km of Gulf of Aden and Indian Ocean coastline to the north and east, Djibouti and Ethiopia to the west, and Kenya to the southwest, encompassing one of Africa's most climate-vulnerable regions.

The country spans diverse topography: the northern Guban coastal plain with scorching year-round temperatures; the Cal Madow mountain range in the northeast reaching over 2,400 m at Shimbiris with slightly cooler microclimates; the central Mudug plain descending southward; and the fertile inter-riverine regions between the Jubba and Shabelle rivers supporting Somalia's primary agricultural zone.

The climate is predominantly Köppen BSh (hot semi-arid) in the northwest and south and BWh (hot desert) in the northeast and centre, with pockets of tropical savanna (Aw) in the south, with mean annual temperatures ranging from about 22°C in highland areas to 30°C along coastal zones.

Somalia experiences a bimodal rainfall pattern: the gu (April–June) main rainy season and the shorter deyr (October–December) secondary season, with the jilal and hagaa (July–September) dry seasons between them. Annual precipitation varies dramatically from under 100 mm in the northeast to roughly 330–600 mm in the south, though extreme interannual variability driven by the Indian Ocean Dipole and ENSO makes these averages misleading.

Mogadishu (coastal Banaadir region) sees highs of about 29°C in July and 32°C in April, with nights of 23–26°C, and approximately 429 mm annual precipitation concentrated in the gu and deyr seasons, but faces sea-level rise threatening critical infrastructure.

Hargeisa (northern highlands, 1,334 m elevation) experiences relatively cooler conditions, with highs of 24°C and lows of 12°C in January and highs of 31°C and lows of 18°C in June, and just over 400 mm rainfall. Bosaso (Gulf of Aden coast) registers extreme heat with highs of about 41°C in June and 29°C in January with merely 19 mm, exemplifying the harsh northeastern desert climate. Kismayo (southern coast) records highs of 28°C in July and 31°C in March, with nights of 23–25°C, and 424 mm supporting relatively more vegetation.

The severe 2010–2011 Horn of Africa drought-famine, exacerbated by conflict and delayed humanitarian response, killed an estimated 260,000 Somalis (half of them children under five) when consecutive gu and deyr rains failed across 2010–2011, marking the worst humanitarian disaster in Somalia since the 1991–1992 famine. The 2016–2017 drought again damaged pastoralist and agropastoralist communities, displacing some 900,000 to 1 million people.

The exceptional 2020–2023 megadrought saw five consecutive rainy seasons fail for the first time in recorded history, pushing 8.3 million Somalis (half the population) into acute food insecurity, killing an estimated 43,000 people in 2022 (half children), and displacing over 1 million according to UN assessments.

Then, in a severe climate whiplash, the October–December 2023 deyr-season rains turned exceptionally heavy, exacerbated by El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, triggering floods that displaced over a million people, engulfed large areas of farmland, and raised the risk of cholera. Cyclone Sagar in May 2018 killed 53 people in Somaliland and Puntland, marking one of the strongest storms to make landfall in northern Somalia.

Our archive covers 10 Somali cities with daily ERA5 reanalysis data going back to 1940. The hottest July afternoons are in Berbera, with average highs around 34.8°C, while Borama has the coldest January nights, with average lows near 11.7°C. Comparing the last decade against the 1940–1970 baseline, mean temperatures across these cities have risen by about 1.1°C.