🇷🇼Rwanda

Rwanda (26,338 km²) occupies the East African highlands between about 1°S and 3°S, spanning elevations from 950 m at the Rusizi River along the western border to 4,507 m at Mount Karisimbi in the Virunga volcanic chain. Known as the Land of a Thousand Hills, the country features dramatic topography: the volcanic Virunga Mountains forming the northwestern border with Uganda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo including six dormant volcanoes, the Congo-Nile Divide running north-south through western Rwanda creating the drainage divide between the Nile and Congo basins, the central plateau of rolling hills where most agriculture occurs, Lake Kivu forming the western border, and the eastern savannas and wetlands including Akagera National Park at lower elevations.

Rwanda's tropical highland climate (Köppen Cwb/Cfb in the highlands, Aw in lower areas) is moderated by altitude: the central plateau sees daytime highs of about 25–28°C and nights around 14–16°C year-round with two rainy seasons (long rains March–May, short rains October–December), while the Virunga highlands remain cooler with heavier rainfall exceeding 1,500 mm annually, and eastern lowlands see highs of about 26–28°C. This equatorial location means minimal temperature variation between seasons but extreme rainfall variability between and within seasons.

Kigali at 1,567 m sees daytime highs of 27–28°C and nights around 15–16°C in July and February with 990 mm annual rainfall concentrated in the two rainy seasons. Gisenyi on Lake Kivu sees highs of about 24–25°C and nights around 14–15°C. Ruhengeri in the Virunga foothills sees highs of about 24–25°C and nights near 12°C in both months with 1,400 mm as one of Rwanda's wettest zones supporting mountain gorilla habitat in Volcanoes National Park. Butare on the southern plateau sees daytime highs of about 24–26°C and nights around 14–15°C with some 1,200 mm.

Kibungo in the eastern lowlands sees highs of about 27°C and nights near 15°C in both months with about 1,200 mm, in the drier east of Rwanda. Rwanda faces severe flood and landslide events, which have increased over the past 30 years: the severe May 2023 Northern and Western Province floods and landslides killed over 130 people when torrential rains triggered massive slope failures in Rubavu, Ngororero, Nyabihu, and Rutsiro districts destroying over 5,000 homes; a May 2018 landslide in Western Province killed 18 people; the severe May 2020 floods and landslides killed 65 people across seven districts.

Climate stresses include accelerating inter-seasonal rainfall variability threatening subsistence agriculture, increasing frequency of extreme daily rainfall events triggering deadly landslides on densely populated hillsides, warming-driven upward shift of Volcanoes National Park vegetation zones stressing endangered mountain gorillas, declining predictability of traditional planting seasons, and intensifying droughts in eastern Rwanda.

Our archive covers 3 Rwandan cities with daily ERA5 reanalysis data going back to 1940. The hottest July afternoons are in Nyagatare, with average highs around 27.4°C, while Musanze has the coldest January nights, with average lows near 13.9°C. Comparing the last decade against the 1940–1970 baseline, mean temperatures across these cities have risen by about 1.6°C.